1 00:00:40,150 --> 00:00:37,210 good afternoon and welcome to the 2 00:00:42,040 --> 00:00:40,160 administrators seminar series we're here 3 00:00:44,980 --> 00:00:42,050 once again to discuss the nation's 4 00:00:46,810 --> 00:00:44,990 future in space this is the fourth in a 5 00:00:48,910 --> 00:00:46,820 series of dialogues that looks at 6 00:00:52,600 --> 00:00:48,920 different aspects of what might comprise 7 00:00:54,340 --> 00:00:52,610 a driving goal for the next era a goal 8 00:00:56,020 --> 00:00:54,350 that's fundamentally character and 9 00:00:59,590 --> 00:00:56,030 that's important to the public that 10 00:01:02,620 --> 00:00:59,600 supports the space program Martin Luther 11 00:01:04,870 --> 00:01:02,630 King said as marvelous as the stars is 12 00:01:07,780 --> 00:01:04,880 the mind of the person who studies them 13 00:01:11,260 --> 00:01:07,790 and so when we began this series in 14 00:01:14,050 --> 00:01:11,270 January we started with life what is 15 00:01:16,900 --> 00:01:14,060 life mean how would we recognize it 16 00:01:19,749 --> 00:01:16,910 elsewhere either in our own solar system 17 00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:19,759 or on another earth orbiting a distant 18 00:01:26,830 --> 00:01:23,210 Sun the mind of the person who studies 19 00:01:29,260 --> 00:01:26,840 the Stars created cosmology by virtue of 20 00:01:32,109 --> 00:01:29,270 this activity we put ourselves squarely 21 00:01:36,249 --> 00:01:32,119 at the center of the universe looking 22 00:01:39,040 --> 00:01:36,259 outwards this theme life and it's self 23 00:01:41,469 --> 00:01:39,050 conscious exploration of itself in the 24 00:01:45,340 --> 00:01:41,479 cosmos form the basis of our first three 25 00:01:48,520 --> 00:01:45,350 seminars today's seminar is called new 26 00:01:50,800 --> 00:01:48,530 frontiers and climate research the 27 00:01:52,990 --> 00:01:50,810 refrain from lynn margulis the speaker 28 00:01:56,380 --> 00:01:53,000 at our first seminar runs through 29 00:01:59,800 --> 00:01:56,390 today's to life is a planetary 30 00:02:01,660 --> 00:01:59,810 phenomenon that she said the images we 31 00:02:04,240 --> 00:02:01,670 have gotten back from our shuttle 32 00:02:07,320 --> 00:02:04,250 missions show clearly the climate and 33 00:02:10,930 --> 00:02:07,330 its change are a planetary phenomenon 34 00:02:13,090 --> 00:02:10,940 life thrived in abundance without self 35 00:02:16,540 --> 00:02:13,100 awareness for perhaps three and a half 36 00:02:18,610 --> 00:02:16,550 billion years yet nor much briefer 37 00:02:22,270 --> 00:02:18,620 history on the planet we have 38 00:02:24,610 --> 00:02:22,280 transformed it what is the impact of the 39 00:02:27,309 --> 00:02:24,620 climate on climate of our own actions 40 00:02:30,070 --> 00:02:27,319 and what is the interplay of our doings 41 00:02:31,870 --> 00:02:30,080 and that of nature's how do all the 42 00:02:36,449 --> 00:02:31,880 different aspects of climate research 43 00:02:38,949 --> 00:02:36,459 fit into one overall planetary picture 44 00:02:41,320 --> 00:02:38,959 understanding this has motivated a u.s. 45 00:02:42,790 --> 00:02:41,330 Global Change Program and NASA's part of 46 00:02:45,370 --> 00:02:42,800 it which is called mission to Planet 47 00:02:47,140 --> 00:02:45,380 Earth today we're going to hear how 48 00:02:49,420 --> 00:02:47,150 science and space contribu 49 00:02:53,020 --> 00:02:49,430 to this mission and our distinguished 50 00:02:56,289 --> 00:02:53,030 speakers dr. Ellen Mosley Thompson and 51 00:02:58,449 --> 00:02:56,299 dr. Michael McElroy will address the 52 00:03:01,050 --> 00:02:58,459 question of what should be our long-term 53 00:03:03,360 --> 00:03:01,060 vision for monitoring the planet and 54 00:03:05,619 --> 00:03:03,370 communicating this information widely 55 00:03:08,440 --> 00:03:05,629 I'd first like to bring up the NASA 56 00:03:10,420 --> 00:03:08,450 Administrator Mr Dan Goldin whose vision 57 00:03:12,460 --> 00:03:10,430 shaped these seminars and whose 58 00:03:27,390 --> 00:03:12,470 leadership propels us to consider a 59 00:03:33,729 --> 00:03:31,229 was recently in a set of discussions 60 00:03:37,750 --> 00:03:33,739 with some of the people from Robert 61 00:03:42,699 --> 00:03:37,760 Mondavi wineries and they have a problem 62 00:03:44,500 --> 00:03:42,709 it's called philosophy that comes around 63 00:03:49,539 --> 00:03:44,510 every hundred years or so and it wiped 64 00:03:53,229 --> 00:03:49,549 out the grapes in France and it's now in 65 00:03:55,089 --> 00:03:53,239 the process of beginning to destroy some 66 00:03:58,479 --> 00:03:55,099 of the grape vines in Northern 67 00:04:01,330 --> 00:03:58,489 California it's very interesting about 68 00:04:04,240 --> 00:04:01,340 falaka when you're on the ground you 69 00:04:06,369 --> 00:04:04,250 don't see it you don't know that it's 70 00:04:09,129 --> 00:04:06,379 beginning to destroy the plants down in 71 00:04:12,129 --> 00:04:09,139 its root system but from the height of 72 00:04:14,740 --> 00:04:12,139 space you could look down with a 73 00:04:18,159 --> 00:04:14,750 hyperspectral device and you could 74 00:04:21,759 --> 00:04:18,169 actually see the stress on the grape 75 00:04:24,969 --> 00:04:21,769 vines from the philosopher so what this 76 00:04:26,800 --> 00:04:24,979 tells us is when you're close you can't 77 00:04:30,399 --> 00:04:26,810 necessarily they say you can't see the 78 00:04:32,589 --> 00:04:30,409 forest from the trees space gives us an 79 00:04:35,409 --> 00:04:32,599 ability to holistically look down on our 80 00:04:38,140 --> 00:04:35,419 own planet and get a sense not just 81 00:04:40,480 --> 00:04:38,150 about what's happening in this spot oh 82 00:04:43,360 --> 00:04:40,490 that's pot we get a broad holistic view 83 00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:43,370 of our own planet and it touches 84 00:04:51,159 --> 00:04:48,050 everybody's life and as we have 5.5 85 00:04:54,460 --> 00:04:51,169 billion strong on this planet preparing 86 00:04:57,430 --> 00:04:54,470 for as many as 10 billion perhaps in 87 00:04:59,500 --> 00:04:57,440 30-40 years from now it's very very 88 00:05:00,200 --> 00:04:59,510 important that we understand the forces 89 00:05:02,900 --> 00:05:00,210 of nature 90 00:05:06,110 --> 00:05:02,910 and we understand the forces of the 91 00:05:09,080 --> 00:05:06,120 human species and right now most of the 92 00:05:11,270 --> 00:05:09,090 debate that takes place with regards to 93 00:05:13,550 --> 00:05:11,280 our environment is based on passion and 94 00:05:16,040 --> 00:05:13,560 emotion and who could print the most who 95 00:05:18,409 --> 00:05:16,050 could get the best press bite what we'd 96 00:05:20,900 --> 00:05:18,419 like to do is have rational decisions 97 00:05:22,640 --> 00:05:20,910 about our environment about our own 98 00:05:25,580 --> 00:05:22,650 planet and how we manage those resources 99 00:05:29,900 --> 00:05:25,590 and that could only come with a holistic 100 00:05:32,870 --> 00:05:29,910 view so we are set out on a course and 101 00:05:34,460 --> 00:05:32,880 we only see maybe five or ten years out 102 00:05:38,150 --> 00:05:34,470 on this course but let me take you out 103 00:05:40,879 --> 00:05:38,160 20 or 30 years to what I think we could 104 00:05:45,230 --> 00:05:40,889 have I think we could have virtual 105 00:05:48,589 --> 00:05:45,240 coverage of our own planet that's active 106 00:05:53,060 --> 00:05:48,599 and passive coverage multispectral with 107 00:05:57,439 --> 00:05:53,070 a matta a small spacecraft hooked up 108 00:05:59,749 --> 00:05:57,449 either through photons or through RF 109 00:06:02,089 --> 00:05:59,759 waves so they're coherently coupled so 110 00:06:05,260 --> 00:06:02,099 we could get pixel registration that 111 00:06:10,370 --> 00:06:05,270 will allow us to understand the stresses 112 00:06:13,129 --> 00:06:10,380 on our life forms the stresses on our 113 00:06:16,129 --> 00:06:13,139 planet so we could understand how to 114 00:06:18,860 --> 00:06:16,139 make rational decisions at the same time 115 00:06:23,360 --> 00:06:18,870 when we have this wonderful data we 116 00:06:26,990 --> 00:06:23,370 could close the biological circle people 117 00:06:29,390 --> 00:06:27,000 are very very isolated from nature today 118 00:06:32,089 --> 00:06:29,400 and I've said this before you know in 119 00:06:35,270 --> 00:06:32,099 big cities like Washington and New York 120 00:06:37,580 --> 00:06:35,280 you know it's fall not by when the 121 00:06:39,260 --> 00:06:37,590 leaves fall off the trees but when the 122 00:06:40,820 --> 00:06:39,270 football season starts you know it's 123 00:06:44,899 --> 00:06:40,830 spring when the baseball season's 124 00:06:48,140 --> 00:06:44,909 thoughts as technological as we are we 125 00:06:51,709 --> 00:06:48,150 are ecologically isolated from our own 126 00:06:54,709 --> 00:06:51,719 environment so by having this ability 127 00:06:57,830 --> 00:06:54,719 which technology could give us it should 128 00:07:00,740 --> 00:06:57,840 be able to close the loop but towards 129 00:07:03,379 --> 00:07:00,750 what purpose are we going in the right 130 00:07:06,399 --> 00:07:03,389 direction and this is what I think we'd 131 00:07:09,560 --> 00:07:06,409 like to explore today the why and the 132 00:07:12,050 --> 00:07:09,570 what not the how because this is what we 133 00:07:13,100 --> 00:07:12,060 concern ourselves with NASA too much how 134 00:07:14,320 --> 00:07:13,110 are we going to do it how many 135 00:07:17,320 --> 00:07:14,330 spacecraft what 136 00:07:19,839 --> 00:07:17,330 look at so we'd like to explore the what 137 00:07:21,490 --> 00:07:19,849 and the why and then understanding the 138 00:07:23,170 --> 00:07:21,500 what and why the problem we could get to 139 00:07:35,679 --> 00:07:23,180 the hell so I look forward to the 140 00:07:37,959 --> 00:07:35,689 discussions today thank you okay our 141 00:07:40,149 --> 00:07:37,969 first speaker to talk about the what and 142 00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:40,159 the why is dr. Ellen stone Mosley 143 00:07:45,429 --> 00:07:43,370 Thompson she received her higher degrees 144 00:07:47,680 --> 00:07:45,439 in climate ology from Ohio State 145 00:07:50,619 --> 00:07:47,690 University and is now an associate 146 00:07:52,659 --> 00:07:50,629 professor there she's also a research 147 00:07:56,529 --> 00:07:52,669 scientist for the Byrd Polar Research 148 00:07:59,469 --> 00:07:56,539 Center's one of her specialties is paleo 149 00:08:01,570 --> 00:07:59,479 climactic reconstructions based on 150 00:08:05,010 --> 00:08:01,580 evidence preserved in ice cores from 151 00:08:07,089 --> 00:08:05,020 Antarctica Greenland China and Peru 152 00:08:09,159 --> 00:08:07,099 she's been involved in global 153 00:08:12,189 --> 00:08:09,169 reconstruction of the Little Ice Age 154 00:08:15,790 --> 00:08:12,199 event the role of volcanism in the last 155 00:08:18,070 --> 00:08:15,800 millennium of climate variability the 156 00:08:20,860 --> 00:08:18,080 reconstruction of abrupt changes in the 157 00:08:24,339 --> 00:08:20,870 environmental system and the impact of 158 00:08:25,930 --> 00:08:24,349 these changes on human activity she has 159 00:08:28,540 --> 00:08:25,940 served as a member of several national 160 00:08:30,309 --> 00:08:28,550 academy and NRC committees and global 161 00:08:32,380 --> 00:08:30,319 change in the environment and is 162 00:08:34,959 --> 00:08:32,390 currently president of the atmospheric 163 00:08:47,699 --> 00:08:34,969 sciences section of the american 164 00:08:54,519 --> 00:08:52,540 thank you dr. Cordova and thank you for 165 00:08:58,600 --> 00:08:54,529 coming and it's quite a pleasure to be 166 00:09:01,569 --> 00:08:58,610 here I'll start with my first slide the 167 00:09:04,930 --> 00:09:01,579 title of my talk is I score records as 168 00:09:09,400 --> 00:09:04,940 windows on the past and keys to our 169 00:09:13,569 --> 00:09:09,410 future I like to start my talks with 170 00:09:16,569 --> 00:09:13,579 this picture this is the margin of the 171 00:09:19,509 --> 00:09:16,579 Cal kaya ice cap which sits in the Andes 172 00:09:22,690 --> 00:09:19,519 of Peru at 14 degrees south at over 173 00:09:25,720 --> 00:09:22,700 6,000 or at about fifty seven hundred 174 00:09:29,550 --> 00:09:25,730 meters what you see here are the annual 175 00:09:34,389 --> 00:09:29,560 layers each of those is the snow that 176 00:09:36,970 --> 00:09:34,399 accumulated in a given year I'll come 177 00:09:41,380 --> 00:09:36,980 full circle at the end of the talk I 178 00:09:43,350 --> 00:09:41,390 will show you how this ice cap no longer 179 00:09:50,889 --> 00:09:43,360 looks this way and it's no longer 180 00:09:53,740 --> 00:09:50,899 preserving this unique archive if we 181 00:09:56,920 --> 00:09:53,750 drill through ice caps and ice sheets we 182 00:10:00,430 --> 00:09:56,930 get an ice core much like this drilled 183 00:10:02,259 --> 00:10:00,440 here using a thermal drill I showed this 184 00:10:06,670 --> 00:10:02,269 some people might not know what a nice 185 00:10:09,100 --> 00:10:06,680 core looks like this slide outlines the 186 00:10:12,310 --> 00:10:09,110 type of environmental data that we get 187 00:10:14,889 --> 00:10:12,320 from ice cores the beauty of an ice core 188 00:10:18,910 --> 00:10:14,899 is it produces a multi-faceted record 189 00:10:21,730 --> 00:10:18,920 it's a cylinder if we take a cut through 190 00:10:24,130 --> 00:10:21,740 there we get a cross-section like this 191 00:10:26,920 --> 00:10:24,140 and then we can partition the samples 192 00:10:28,569 --> 00:10:26,930 and make a variety of measurements for 193 00:10:30,490 --> 00:10:28,579 example one of the most common 194 00:10:33,639 --> 00:10:30,500 measurements is that of the oxygen 195 00:10:37,030 --> 00:10:33,649 isotopic ratio which we use as a proxy 196 00:10:41,230 --> 00:10:37,040 for temperature we can also measure 197 00:10:45,939 --> 00:10:41,240 atmospheric chemistry the dustiness of 198 00:10:48,340 --> 00:10:45,949 the atmosphere vegetation changes not in 199 00:10:51,220 --> 00:10:48,350 the polar regions but outside the polar 200 00:10:54,900 --> 00:10:51,230 regions bulk at the Earth's volcanic 201 00:10:58,569 --> 00:10:54,910 history and as dr. McElroy will show you 202 00:11:02,829 --> 00:10:58,579 anthropogenic emissions carbon dioxide 203 00:11:06,369 --> 00:11:02,839 methane and nitrous oxide in ice course 204 00:11:08,819 --> 00:11:06,379 where we can discern the annual layer we 205 00:11:11,859 --> 00:11:08,829 can say something about how much snow 206 00:11:14,379 --> 00:11:11,869 accumulated in a given year in other 207 00:11:19,169 --> 00:11:14,389 words we can go back and reconstruct the 208 00:11:25,269 --> 00:11:22,720 this slide is busy but it shows all of 209 00:11:28,629 --> 00:11:25,279 the places where we have either had a 210 00:11:31,809 --> 00:11:28,639 nice scoring project or we anticipate 211 00:11:34,239 --> 00:11:31,819 having one in the next slide I'm just 212 00:11:37,239 --> 00:11:34,249 going to show you the upper 40 meters of 213 00:11:40,109 --> 00:11:37,249 a core from the dire plateau located 214 00:11:43,090 --> 00:11:40,119 right here on the Antarctic Peninsula 215 00:11:45,999 --> 00:11:43,100 it's a busy slide I'd like to call your 216 00:11:49,710 --> 00:11:46,009 attention to these two profiles the 217 00:11:52,660 --> 00:11:49,720 oxygen isotopic ratio and the sulfate 218 00:11:56,199 --> 00:11:52,670 concentrations this is just the upper 40 219 00:11:59,319 --> 00:11:56,209 meters of a 200-meter core I'm using 220 00:12:02,559 --> 00:11:59,329 this to illustrate to you how we date 221 00:12:05,619 --> 00:12:02,569 course ideally we like to date them year 222 00:12:08,499 --> 00:12:05,629 by year to do that requires that we 223 00:12:11,639 --> 00:12:08,509 discern or measure something that has a 224 00:12:14,949 --> 00:12:11,649 seasonal signal and here in Delta o-18 225 00:12:18,669 --> 00:12:14,959 we see summer winter summer winter 226 00:12:22,030 --> 00:12:18,679 summer winter we see high flux of 227 00:12:24,429 --> 00:12:22,040 sulfate every spring so essentially we 228 00:12:27,429 --> 00:12:24,439 can drill through it's like a layer cake 229 00:12:29,379 --> 00:12:27,439 and when the accumulation rate is high 230 00:12:32,350 --> 00:12:29,389 enough we pick up these seasonal 231 00:12:37,900 --> 00:12:32,360 variations and we can precisely date 232 00:12:39,999 --> 00:12:37,910 these cores these cores provide an 233 00:12:42,699 --> 00:12:40,009 opportunity to reconstruct the Earth's 234 00:12:46,569 --> 00:12:42,709 volcanic history this happens to be the 235 00:12:50,109 --> 00:12:46,579 eruption of mount pinatubo in 91 and we 236 00:12:54,210 --> 00:12:50,119 know that it the sulfur the sulfuric 237 00:12:59,169 --> 00:12:54,220 acid droplets have essentially the 238 00:13:02,169 --> 00:12:59,179 cooling in 92 and 93 was attributed to 239 00:13:06,220 --> 00:13:02,179 the sulfuric acid suspended in the 240 00:13:08,650 --> 00:13:06,230 stratosphere well we can take a record 241 00:13:11,879 --> 00:13:08,660 like that with ice cores and go back in 242 00:13:16,289 --> 00:13:11,889 time this again a busy slide but the 243 00:13:19,799 --> 00:13:16,299 to this is excess sulfate we have to 244 00:13:22,109 --> 00:13:19,809 extract the oceanic sulfate component 245 00:13:25,710 --> 00:13:22,119 and we do that by measuring chlorine or 246 00:13:28,979 --> 00:13:25,720 sodium what we are left with is the 247 00:13:33,389 --> 00:13:28,989 excess and the two prominent sources of 248 00:13:35,759 --> 00:13:33,399 excess sulfate are volcanism and the 249 00:13:38,519 --> 00:13:35,769 burning of fossil fuels both of which we 250 00:13:41,819 --> 00:13:38,529 see in this diagram these are the 251 00:13:43,979 --> 00:13:41,829 individual eruptions the spikes this is 252 00:13:47,269 --> 00:13:43,989 Northern Hemisphere two sites in 253 00:13:50,549 --> 00:13:47,279 Greenland and two sites in Antarctica 254 00:13:52,530 --> 00:13:50,559 and you can see that although there are 255 00:13:55,349 --> 00:13:52,540 many many eruptions in the northern 256 00:13:57,479 --> 00:13:55,359 hemisphere those eruptions that are 257 00:14:00,720 --> 00:13:57,489 preserved both in the North and the 258 00:14:03,840 --> 00:14:00,730 South are much fewer I'd point out the 259 00:14:08,309 --> 00:14:03,850 eruption of tambora right here it's part 260 00:14:12,150 --> 00:14:08,319 of this couplet tambora erupted in 1815 261 00:14:15,629 --> 00:14:12,160 and it was credited with the year 262 00:14:17,429 --> 00:14:15,639 without a summer in 1816 however if you 263 00:14:20,369 --> 00:14:17,439 go back and you look at the climate 264 00:14:22,590 --> 00:14:20,379 history the temperature records it was 265 00:14:26,129 --> 00:14:22,600 found that actually the climate in that 266 00:14:28,409 --> 00:14:26,139 decade from 1810 to 1820 the 267 00:14:32,340 --> 00:14:28,419 temperatures were actually declining 268 00:14:35,699 --> 00:14:32,350 before tambora erupted and this was used 269 00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:35,709 as evidence against the potential of a 270 00:14:42,780 --> 00:14:39,970 volcano temperature linkage however with 271 00:14:47,519 --> 00:14:42,790 these ice cores putting them together we 272 00:14:50,309 --> 00:14:47,529 found another eruption in 1809 virtually 273 00:14:53,100 --> 00:14:50,319 the same magnitude as tambora very 274 00:14:56,279 --> 00:14:53,110 outstanding event of the same magnitude 275 00:14:59,210 --> 00:14:56,289 in terms of the sulfate it produced in 276 00:15:02,909 --> 00:14:59,220 the northern hemisphere but not recorded 277 00:15:06,059 --> 00:15:02,919 historically but well preserved in the 278 00:15:08,939 --> 00:15:06,069 ice core and we speculate that was this 279 00:15:11,879 --> 00:15:08,949 eruption in 1809 that really set the 280 00:15:13,739 --> 00:15:11,889 stage for the cooling of that decade and 281 00:15:18,090 --> 00:15:13,749 then of course adding insult to injury 282 00:15:21,900 --> 00:15:18,100 with tambora we recorded the lowest the 283 00:15:25,390 --> 00:15:21,910 decade 1810 to 1820 the lowest 284 00:15:30,350 --> 00:15:28,430 when we collect the ice course from many 285 00:15:33,320 --> 00:15:30,360 locations in other words we have a 286 00:15:35,420 --> 00:15:33,330 diversity of ice core records we can 287 00:15:40,510 --> 00:15:35,430 begin to study different components of 288 00:15:43,700 --> 00:15:40,520 the earth system just a brief word about 289 00:15:46,460 --> 00:15:43,710 preliminary results actually this was a 290 00:15:51,260 --> 00:15:46,470 small project preliminary funded by NASA 291 00:15:54,740 --> 00:15:51,270 to look at the ice caps in franz josef 292 00:15:58,100 --> 00:15:54,750 land in the rut in the Russian Arctic 293 00:16:01,550 --> 00:15:58,110 and franz josef land located here at 80 294 00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:01,560 degrees north is the furthest north land 295 00:16:08,870 --> 00:16:05,730 mass in that sector we looked at five 296 00:16:11,240 --> 00:16:08,880 different ice caps and we found that on 297 00:16:14,570 --> 00:16:11,250 the island of Graham Bell the windy dome 298 00:16:17,590 --> 00:16:14,580 ice cap contains a reasonably well 299 00:16:20,240 --> 00:16:17,600 preserved record and is 500 meters thick 300 00:16:22,880 --> 00:16:20,250 now give you these data are very 301 00:16:25,580 --> 00:16:22,890 preliminary we were only drilling with a 302 00:16:28,250 --> 00:16:25,590 hand auger this means we extracted a 303 00:16:32,120 --> 00:16:28,260 20-metre core so the record does not go 304 00:16:35,780 --> 00:16:32,130 back very long in time but what we found 305 00:16:38,290 --> 00:16:35,790 is that increased chloride concentration 306 00:16:41,780 --> 00:16:38,300 chloride isn't green that when chloride 307 00:16:45,980 --> 00:16:41,790 concentration is high the concentration 308 00:16:48,470 --> 00:16:45,990 of sea ice in that area is low so in 309 00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:48,480 other words low sea ice more open water 310 00:16:54,410 --> 00:16:51,690 a greater concentration of chloride and 311 00:16:56,480 --> 00:16:54,420 the r-square this is only a 10 year 312 00:16:58,550 --> 00:16:56,490 record but they are square or 313 00:17:02,630 --> 00:16:58,560 coefficient of determination is 0 point 314 00:17:06,410 --> 00:17:02,640 3 4 it's pretty good to explain 4334 315 00:17:08,360 --> 00:17:06,420 percent of the variance and this is just 316 00:17:11,260 --> 00:17:08,370 a linear plot of the increase in 317 00:17:13,939 --> 00:17:11,270 chloride against the decrease in sea ice 318 00:17:16,970 --> 00:17:13,949 concentration so we're optimistic that 319 00:17:20,800 --> 00:17:16,980 course particularly from the windy dome 320 00:17:25,370 --> 00:17:20,810 may provide a long record of sea ice 321 00:17:27,710 --> 00:17:25,380 variability I'd like to move to the 322 00:17:31,970 --> 00:17:27,720 southern hemisphere to the cal kaya ice 323 00:17:35,840 --> 00:17:31,980 cap it sits at about 18,000 feet in the 324 00:17:37,250 --> 00:17:35,850 Andes at 14 degrees south this was 325 00:17:39,530 --> 00:17:37,260 actually one of the first 326 00:17:43,760 --> 00:17:39,540 drilling projects outside the polar 327 00:17:46,760 --> 00:17:43,770 regions kal kya sits here it covers 328 00:17:48,920 --> 00:17:46,770 about 60 square kilometers the local 329 00:17:52,850 --> 00:17:48,930 mode of transportation shows you that it 330 00:17:56,690 --> 00:17:52,860 is a very remote area the precipitation 331 00:17:58,940 --> 00:17:56,700 to this ice cap comes from the Andes in 332 00:18:01,130 --> 00:17:58,950 the form of these convective storms 333 00:18:03,620 --> 00:18:01,140 these are people on the surface for 334 00:18:08,830 --> 00:18:03,630 scale just to show you that once you're 335 00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:08,840 up on these ice caps they are very large 336 00:18:14,480 --> 00:18:11,730 this was the first use of solar power 337 00:18:17,510 --> 00:18:14,490 because of the remote nature of the site 338 00:18:20,870 --> 00:18:17,520 it was virtually impossible to drill 339 00:18:26,510 --> 00:18:20,880 this in the usual antarctic tradition 340 00:18:29,030 --> 00:18:26,520 and we used 60 solar panels to extract 341 00:18:32,060 --> 00:18:29,040 two cores to bedrock now this is the 342 00:18:34,760 --> 00:18:32,070 same ice cap in which i initially showed 343 00:18:36,260 --> 00:18:34,770 you that vertical margin and this is 344 00:18:39,230 --> 00:18:36,270 what it looks like if you drill through 345 00:18:42,320 --> 00:18:39,240 it these are core sections and these are 346 00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:42,330 those visible dust bands at a hundred 347 00:18:47,030 --> 00:18:44,490 and thirty nine meters in the core we 348 00:18:49,640 --> 00:18:47,040 still have well-preserved s bands this 349 00:18:54,860 --> 00:18:49,650 is what i mean by annual resolution 350 00:18:58,580 --> 00:18:54,870 where we count back year by year the kel 351 00:19:01,040 --> 00:18:58,590 kya provided a 1500 year record from 352 00:19:04,330 --> 00:19:01,050 this region the first record of that 353 00:19:08,390 --> 00:19:04,340 length of that quality from the tropics 354 00:19:12,740 --> 00:19:08,400 we extracted a history of the dustiness 355 00:19:14,380 --> 00:19:12,750 of the atmosphere the accumulation in 356 00:19:18,500 --> 00:19:14,390 other words the changes in precipitation 357 00:19:20,750 --> 00:19:18,510 and the oxygen isotopic ratio tells us 358 00:19:23,060 --> 00:19:20,760 something about temperature and I want 359 00:19:26,510 --> 00:19:23,070 to focus in the next few slides just on 360 00:19:30,290 --> 00:19:26,520 this record the 0 18 and this feature 361 00:19:36,350 --> 00:19:30,300 here which is the little ice age and the 362 00:19:38,570 --> 00:19:36,360 precipitation history on the the bottom 363 00:19:41,870 --> 00:19:38,580 or the bottom and the middle graph are 364 00:19:46,970 --> 00:19:41,880 the oxygen isotopic records going back 365 00:19:49,910 --> 00:19:46,980 to 1600 from kal kya we always drill to 366 00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:49,920 parallel course at a minimum the reason 367 00:19:56,090 --> 00:19:53,010 is if you find something unusual in your 368 00:19:59,920 --> 00:19:56,100 core history and you cannot replicate it 369 00:20:02,570 --> 00:19:59,930 in a parallel core then you have to 370 00:20:05,000 --> 00:20:02,580 suspect it may be you have an artifact 371 00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:05,010 if you can reproduce it it gives you 372 00:20:13,310 --> 00:20:09,410 confidence that you are reconstructing a 373 00:20:15,980 --> 00:20:13,320 respectable history so you can see the 374 00:20:19,100 --> 00:20:15,990 two cores give essentially the same 375 00:20:22,300 --> 00:20:19,110 isotopic results but we've plotted those 376 00:20:26,480 --> 00:20:22,310 here against the northern hemisphere 377 00:20:28,700 --> 00:20:26,490 10-year average temperatures and I'd 378 00:20:32,300 --> 00:20:28,710 like to point out two things first you 379 00:20:36,170 --> 00:20:32,310 can see that the general shape of the 380 00:20:39,050 --> 00:20:36,180 curves is very similar secondly that 381 00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:39,060 this Little Ice Age period and you'll 382 00:20:44,090 --> 00:20:41,090 hear more about that from dr. McElroy 383 00:20:46,330 --> 00:20:44,100 but it was essentially a cool phase in 384 00:20:49,460 --> 00:20:46,340 the Earth's climate history from around 385 00:20:51,770 --> 00:20:49,470 1450 to about eighteen eighty ad in 386 00:20:55,220 --> 00:20:51,780 which it's estimated that temperatures 387 00:20:56,870 --> 00:20:55,230 were about a half a degree cooler also 388 00:20:59,570 --> 00:20:56,880 notice this decade that I've already 389 00:21:03,560 --> 00:20:59,580 mentioned the coolest decade on record 390 00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:03,570 18 10 to 18 20 faithfully recorded by 391 00:21:13,730 --> 00:21:06,810 this ice cap at 18,000 feet at 14 392 00:21:16,400 --> 00:21:13,740 degrees south south america is very rich 393 00:21:21,980 --> 00:21:16,410 in archaeological history this happens 394 00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:21,990 to be Machu Picchu in this slide we've 395 00:21:28,700 --> 00:21:25,170 plotted the 1500 year record of net 396 00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:28,710 accumulation showing essentially periods 397 00:21:33,950 --> 00:21:31,650 where we had less accumulation and more 398 00:21:37,280 --> 00:21:33,960 accumulation in the southern highlands 399 00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:37,290 of Peru over here we're looking at the 400 00:21:42,770 --> 00:21:40,170 rise in the fall of the cultures in that 401 00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:42,780 area and I want you to focus on the 402 00:21:49,670 --> 00:21:44,850 cultures here in the southern highlands 403 00:21:53,030 --> 00:21:49,680 and we can see that during this this 404 00:21:57,650 --> 00:21:53,040 time we have fairly high accumulation 405 00:22:00,310 --> 00:21:57,660 and we have this particular culture the 406 00:22:04,330 --> 00:22:00,320 whorey culture 407 00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:04,340 as we enter this period of reduced 408 00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:07,610 accumulation that culture essentially 409 00:22:13,629 --> 00:22:10,970 leaves the highlands and the cultures 410 00:22:15,909 --> 00:22:13,639 that does not return to the southern 411 00:22:19,330 --> 00:22:15,919 highlands of Peru until this more 412 00:22:22,180 --> 00:22:19,340 pluvial period and this is actually was 413 00:22:24,850 --> 00:22:22,190 the rise of the Inca Empire and of 414 00:22:27,789 --> 00:22:24,860 course determination is the entry of 415 00:22:30,220 --> 00:22:27,799 Spanish into South America when all of 416 00:22:33,730 --> 00:22:30,230 the Highland when all of the cultures 417 00:22:37,810 --> 00:22:33,740 essentially ceased what we know is that 418 00:22:39,850 --> 00:22:37,820 the Highland that the the cultures in 419 00:22:42,330 --> 00:22:39,860 the highland areas and in the coastal 420 00:22:45,759 --> 00:22:42,340 areas tend to function in anti-phase 421 00:22:50,710 --> 00:22:45,769 that is when one culture is flourishing 422 00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:50,720 another culture is diminishing and when 423 00:22:57,789 --> 00:22:52,730 I talk about El Nino here in a minute I 424 00:23:02,560 --> 00:22:57,799 want you to remember this the general 425 00:23:05,889 --> 00:23:02,570 the climate in Peru is dominated by the 426 00:23:09,430 --> 00:23:05,899 El Nino and that system called El Nino 427 00:23:11,710 --> 00:23:09,440 Southern Oscillation or ENSO essentially 428 00:23:14,560 --> 00:23:11,720 during in so we get drought conditions 429 00:23:20,019 --> 00:23:14,570 in southern Peru and flooding conditions 430 00:23:21,700 --> 00:23:20,029 in northern Peru along the coast it just 431 00:23:24,310 --> 00:23:21,710 happened that the drilling project on 432 00:23:28,060 --> 00:23:24,320 kal kya the big drilling project 433 00:23:32,049 --> 00:23:28,070 occurred in 1983 in the middle of the 434 00:23:37,690 --> 00:23:32,059 mega El Nino of 82 83 the largest in so 435 00:23:40,299 --> 00:23:37,700 on record on this side we see the kel 436 00:23:44,019 --> 00:23:40,309 kya ice cap as it normally appears in 437 00:23:47,169 --> 00:23:44,029 19th it appeared in 1978 these are 438 00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:47,179 people for scale this is the same shot 439 00:23:54,490 --> 00:23:51,970 taken in 1983 and you can see that the 440 00:23:59,830 --> 00:23:54,500 essentially the drought in that area is 441 00:24:02,649 --> 00:23:59,840 taking a toll on that ice cap this is 442 00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:02,659 just a very short record of the annual 443 00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:05,210 layer thicknesses essentially what we 444 00:24:11,049 --> 00:24:07,490 found is that during the end so the 445 00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:11,059 accumulation rate on this ice cap drops 446 00:24:20,340 --> 00:24:13,690 by at least twenty five percent 447 00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:20,350 this is the 82 83 El Nino and the 76 77 448 00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:25,330 El Nino so we were encouraged that the 449 00:24:30,210 --> 00:24:27,490 ability to reconstruct these annual 450 00:24:33,360 --> 00:24:30,220 layers and their thicknesses might allow 451 00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:33,370 us to reconstruct a much longer record 452 00:24:39,180 --> 00:24:36,610 of El Nino Southern Oscillation for this 453 00:24:42,799 --> 00:24:39,190 region and in fact we have here the last 454 00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:42,809 500 years it's very very busy slide and 455 00:24:50,789 --> 00:24:47,250 we have plotted here the El Ninos as 456 00:24:54,419 --> 00:24:50,799 reconstructed by bill Quinn back to 1500 457 00:24:57,810 --> 00:24:54,429 ad to make a long story short we 458 00:25:00,299 --> 00:24:57,820 essentially found that many of the that 459 00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:00,309 most of the in cells were recorded in 460 00:25:07,470 --> 00:25:03,970 kal kya as thin layers but we had more 461 00:25:09,360 --> 00:25:07,480 thin layers than we had in so and if you 462 00:25:11,430 --> 00:25:09,370 think about it it makes sense in that 463 00:25:13,379 --> 00:25:11,440 there are many other reasons why you 464 00:25:17,399 --> 00:25:13,389 would have a year with reduced 465 00:25:19,710 --> 00:25:17,409 accumulation later I'll show you I'm not 466 00:25:21,539 --> 00:25:19,720 going to follow up on the in so part but 467 00:25:23,820 --> 00:25:21,549 we've just completed a project in 468 00:25:25,830 --> 00:25:23,830 northern Peru in the previous slide 469 00:25:29,159 --> 00:25:25,840 remember northern Peru gets more 470 00:25:32,100 --> 00:25:29,169 accumulation so we now hope to put these 471 00:25:35,909 --> 00:25:32,110 two records together matching in the 472 00:25:40,830 --> 00:25:35,919 South thin years within the North thick 473 00:25:44,340 --> 00:25:40,840 years and see if we can better calibrate 474 00:25:49,230 --> 00:25:44,350 our current ability to reconstruct El 475 00:25:51,450 --> 00:25:49,240 Nino Southern Oscillation ice cores also 476 00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:51,460 have the ability to provide us a 477 00:25:57,930 --> 00:25:55,570 long-term perspective and this 478 00:26:00,240 --> 00:25:57,940 perspective is critical if we're going 479 00:26:02,970 --> 00:26:00,250 to understand the natural variability of 480 00:26:05,669 --> 00:26:02,980 the climate system and we must 481 00:26:09,690 --> 00:26:05,679 understand the natural variability if 482 00:26:13,769 --> 00:26:09,700 we're going to separate it from recent 483 00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:13,779 anthropogenic effects we all run up 484 00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:15,730 against this all the time well how do 485 00:26:20,639 --> 00:26:18,250 you know the 20th century is unusual how 486 00:26:23,279 --> 00:26:20,649 do you know that the 1980s were unusual 487 00:26:25,980 --> 00:26:23,289 the only way you know is to look back 488 00:26:26,549 --> 00:26:25,990 through time and use that history as a 489 00:26:32,220 --> 00:26:26,559 measure 490 00:26:36,060 --> 00:26:32,230 stick I want to move now from kal kya 491 00:26:38,519 --> 00:26:36,070 cross the Pacific Basin to the Tibetan 492 00:26:41,399 --> 00:26:38,529 Plateau I would just point out this is a 493 00:26:44,549 --> 00:26:41,409 NASA image taken I think this is 494 00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:44,559 November of 82 and you see here the 495 00:26:53,999 --> 00:26:51,730 Pacific warm pool in Asia the dominant 496 00:26:57,629 --> 00:26:54,009 climate system is the monsoonal 497 00:27:00,029 --> 00:26:57,639 circulation system and the monsoonal 498 00:27:03,239 --> 00:27:00,039 circulation system is driven primarily 499 00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:03,249 by the intense heating of the Tibetan 500 00:27:10,080 --> 00:27:06,970 Plateau the Tibetan Plateau is the most 501 00:27:14,070 --> 00:27:10,090 outstanding feature on the earth it has 502 00:27:17,789 --> 00:27:14,080 an elevation of over 4,500 meters and it 503 00:27:23,850 --> 00:27:17,799 contains over 60,000 square kilometers 504 00:27:26,639 --> 00:27:23,860 of snow and ice this is the dune to ice 505 00:27:30,090 --> 00:27:26,649 cap located in the north on the north 506 00:27:32,489 --> 00:27:30,100 central part of the Tibetan Plateau for 507 00:27:37,580 --> 00:27:32,499 scale this is a party with horses going 508 00:27:40,529 --> 00:27:37,590 to the summit the dune to ice cap if 509 00:27:44,249 --> 00:27:40,539 epitomizes what we call an ideal ice cap 510 00:27:46,259 --> 00:27:44,259 shown here in a schematic and what we 511 00:27:49,590 --> 00:27:46,269 look for in these drilling projects are 512 00:27:54,710 --> 00:27:49,600 dome shaped ice masses with relatively 513 00:27:59,549 --> 00:27:54,720 flat basil bedrock so that the flow 514 00:28:02,549 --> 00:27:59,559 regime is fairly simple but for any ice 515 00:28:04,619 --> 00:28:02,559 sheet ice cap there are three things 516 00:28:07,169 --> 00:28:04,629 that determine the length of the record 517 00:28:10,470 --> 00:28:07,179 that you will get the first is the 518 00:28:14,279 --> 00:28:10,480 amount of accumulation that falls the 519 00:28:16,919 --> 00:28:14,289 second is how thick is the ice and the 520 00:28:19,649 --> 00:28:16,929 third is whether that ice is frozen to 521 00:28:22,049 --> 00:28:19,659 the bedrock because of course if it's 522 00:28:27,119 --> 00:28:22,059 not frozen to the bedrock you're losing 523 00:28:30,299 --> 00:28:27,129 your record from below in theory weren't 524 00:28:34,470 --> 00:28:30,309 your ice cap frozen to the bedrock and 525 00:28:37,009 --> 00:28:34,480 had it been so throughout time the first 526 00:28:39,780 --> 00:28:37,019 snow that fell in that region 527 00:28:42,780 --> 00:28:39,790 theoretically should still be there 528 00:28:45,820 --> 00:28:42,790 we know however that it would be thinned 529 00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:45,830 infant essa melis mall and could not be 530 00:28:55,630 --> 00:28:48,890 discernible but the idea is you want to 531 00:28:59,350 --> 00:28:55,640 look for ice caps frozen to the bed the 532 00:29:02,110 --> 00:28:59,360 oxygen isotopic record that I've been 533 00:29:05,590 --> 00:29:02,120 talking about we use Delta o-18 as a 534 00:29:08,380 --> 00:29:05,600 proxy for temperature and I just want to 535 00:29:11,140 --> 00:29:08,390 show you because we have had this long 536 00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:11,150 term collaborative project in China we 537 00:29:16,419 --> 00:29:13,250 have the ability to have snowfall 538 00:29:19,690 --> 00:29:16,429 collected and the temperature measured 539 00:29:21,430 --> 00:29:19,700 at the same time contemporaneously this 540 00:29:24,310 --> 00:29:21,440 is something that is very difficult to 541 00:29:27,250 --> 00:29:24,320 do over the polar ice sheets essentially 542 00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:27,260 we have the Delta o-18 here and the 543 00:29:34,330 --> 00:29:30,170 temperature we have more negative Delta 544 00:29:38,910 --> 00:29:34,340 when we have colder temperatures less 545 00:29:41,919 --> 00:29:38,920 negative Delta and warmer temperatures 546 00:29:44,860 --> 00:29:41,929 the dune to ice cap contained a record 547 00:29:47,919 --> 00:29:44,870 well over 40,000 years long this was a 548 00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:47,929 surprise to us actually we had 549 00:29:55,419 --> 00:29:50,570 anticipated a record maybe a five to ten 550 00:29:58,710 --> 00:29:55,429 thousand this is the this they do the 551 00:30:02,080 --> 00:29:58,720 course represent the very first ice 552 00:30:05,230 --> 00:30:02,090 recovered outside the polar regions that 553 00:30:10,330 --> 00:30:05,240 contain ice deposited during the last 554 00:30:12,610 --> 00:30:10,340 glaciation over 12,000 years ago but 555 00:30:16,480 --> 00:30:12,620 more importantly it provides that 556 00:30:20,140 --> 00:30:16,490 backdrop or that measuring stick let me 557 00:30:25,480 --> 00:30:20,150 use this to illustrate this is a 12,000 558 00:30:28,690 --> 00:30:25,490 year record of Delta o-18 more negative 559 00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:28,700 is cold and what we see here is the end 560 00:30:35,770 --> 00:30:32,330 of the last major glaciation and the 561 00:30:39,610 --> 00:30:35,780 overlying Holocene the shaded area 562 00:30:45,490 --> 00:30:39,620 represents the Delta o-18 average for 563 00:30:49,630 --> 00:30:45,500 the last 50 years 1937 to 1987 the year 564 00:30:52,540 --> 00:30:49,640 we drilled the core as you can see the 565 00:30:57,940 --> 00:30:52,550 last 50 years have been the warmest 566 00:31:01,600 --> 00:30:57,950 in the last 12,000 now climate models 567 00:31:04,180 --> 00:31:01,610 which we know are in precise and 568 00:31:08,430 --> 00:31:04,190 imperfect and dr. McElroy will mention 569 00:31:12,700 --> 00:31:08,440 that I'm sure given all their warts 570 00:31:16,330 --> 00:31:12,710 still suggest that the interior hi 571 00:31:18,910 --> 00:31:16,340 portions of large continents should be 572 00:31:21,670 --> 00:31:18,920 one of the first places where we would 573 00:31:25,150 --> 00:31:21,680 see evidence of an anthropogenic ly 574 00:31:28,240 --> 00:31:25,160 induced warming and that's what we see 575 00:31:32,470 --> 00:31:28,250 here at over 5,000 meters on the Tibetan 576 00:31:34,690 --> 00:31:32,480 Plateau I just want to point out that 577 00:31:38,110 --> 00:31:34,700 the types of projects that we conduct 578 00:31:40,270 --> 00:31:38,120 require international collaboration we 579 00:31:42,970 --> 00:31:40,280 could not do projects in China and South 580 00:31:45,490 --> 00:31:42,980 America without our international 581 00:31:48,730 --> 00:31:45,500 partners I'd like to move now from the 582 00:31:53,590 --> 00:31:48,740 dune to ice cap here to the Galia ice 583 00:31:56,760 --> 00:31:53,600 cap in the Western Kunlun galia sits at 584 00:31:59,650 --> 00:31:56,770 sixty seven hundred metres that's over 585 00:32:04,330 --> 00:31:59,660 21,000 feet and you see it here 586 00:32:08,860 --> 00:32:04,340 virtually in the clouds but it has 587 00:32:11,740 --> 00:32:08,870 annual layering and this vertical margin 588 00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:11,750 that you see tells us that it is frozen 589 00:32:19,180 --> 00:32:15,170 to the bed this is the profile that one 590 00:32:24,850 --> 00:32:19,190 expects to see I on polar glaciers that 591 00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:24,860 are frozen to the bed and this is just a 592 00:32:32,620 --> 00:32:29,690 drill site of the drill camp and again 593 00:32:35,380 --> 00:32:32,630 in this ice cap these are the annual 594 00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:35,390 layers that have allowed us to count 595 00:32:41,110 --> 00:32:38,810 back what to point out that at a hundred 596 00:32:44,920 --> 00:32:41,120 and thirty five meters we are still 597 00:32:48,990 --> 00:32:44,930 counting annual layers we encountered 598 00:32:52,630 --> 00:32:49,000 late glacial stage ice at a hundred and 599 00:32:56,410 --> 00:32:52,640 fifty three meters on this ice cap that 600 00:32:58,870 --> 00:32:56,420 should be the next slide the ice the ice 601 00:33:02,500 --> 00:32:58,880 caps three hundred and seven meters 602 00:33:04,820 --> 00:33:02,510 thick we essentially layer counted to 603 00:33:06,950 --> 00:33:04,830 right here 604 00:33:09,580 --> 00:33:06,960 we had estimated that we should 605 00:33:13,159 --> 00:33:09,590 encounter late glacial stage that's 606 00:33:16,100 --> 00:33:13,169 12,000 years or older ice at a hundred 607 00:33:21,019 --> 00:33:16,110 and fifty five meters we encountered it 608 00:33:23,870 --> 00:33:21,029 at 153 these analyses are still under 609 00:33:26,450 --> 00:33:23,880 we're still making the analyses we're 610 00:33:30,080 --> 00:33:26,460 halfway through but what I want to point 611 00:33:32,720 --> 00:33:30,090 out is we have late glacial stage ice 612 00:33:35,230 --> 00:33:32,730 this is the second time we've found late 613 00:33:38,629 --> 00:33:35,240 glacial stage ice on the Tibetan Plateau 614 00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:38,639 but we still have half the thickness of 615 00:33:43,610 --> 00:33:41,490 that ice cap get to analyze so we 616 00:33:48,110 --> 00:33:43,620 anticipate that we're going to have a 617 00:33:50,299 --> 00:33:48,120 record of multiple glaciations when we 618 00:33:52,909 --> 00:33:50,309 begin to put together a global array of 619 00:33:56,860 --> 00:33:52,919 records we begin to see large-scale 620 00:34:01,720 --> 00:33:56,870 teleconnections this is the accumulation 621 00:34:05,269 --> 00:34:01,730 from the Galia core the last 1000 years 622 00:34:09,970 --> 00:34:05,279 compared to the cal kaya core the 623 00:34:13,909 --> 00:34:09,980 similarity is is striking hi 624 00:34:17,540 --> 00:34:13,919 accumulation low accumulation when you 625 00:34:19,940 --> 00:34:17,550 consider that the Galia sits on the far 626 00:34:25,220 --> 00:34:19,950 western edge of the Tibetan Plateau at 627 00:34:27,829 --> 00:34:25,230 35 degrees north kal kya sits 20,000 628 00:34:33,770 --> 00:34:27,839 kilometers away across the Pacific Basin 629 00:34:37,159 --> 00:34:33,780 at 14 degrees south in the Andes we know 630 00:34:39,649 --> 00:34:37,169 from current day observations that the 631 00:34:42,859 --> 00:34:39,659 El Nino Southern Oscillation dominates 632 00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:42,869 the Pacific Basin and we also know that 633 00:34:50,599 --> 00:34:46,530 its variability is tied intimately to 634 00:34:54,829 --> 00:34:50,609 the monsoonal circulation system and the 635 00:34:59,109 --> 00:34:54,839 failure of the monsoons we've proposed 636 00:35:03,740 --> 00:34:59,119 that the earth actually has what we call 637 00:35:05,960 --> 00:35:03,750 excuse me mega El Ninos periods of time 638 00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:05,970 for hundreds of years in which the earth 639 00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:10,410 operates in an El Nino like state we 640 00:35:16,260 --> 00:35:13,290 know El Ninos today last 1 or 2 years 641 00:35:18,930 --> 00:35:16,270 although in the last decade 642 00:35:22,020 --> 00:35:18,940 you haven't it hasn't operated quite the 643 00:35:24,000 --> 00:35:22,030 way we thought it should the point is 644 00:35:26,150 --> 00:35:24,010 what you begin to collect these records 645 00:35:30,660 --> 00:35:26,160 you can begin to put these connections 646 00:35:33,690 --> 00:35:30,670 together this is again a busy slide this 647 00:35:36,660 --> 00:35:33,700 shows the 10-year averages for the last 648 00:35:39,510 --> 00:35:36,670 1000 years from nine different ice core 649 00:35:42,390 --> 00:35:39,520 sites all the way from South Pole 650 00:35:47,070 --> 00:35:42,400 Station to central Greenland and camp 651 00:35:49,110 --> 00:35:47,080 century maybe those people who would 652 00:35:51,240 --> 00:35:49,120 like to believe that the little ice age 653 00:35:54,270 --> 00:35:51,250 is a global phenomenon might be 654 00:35:57,480 --> 00:35:54,280 disappointed because what we see is that 655 00:36:00,240 --> 00:35:57,490 in Peru the little ice age was a very 656 00:36:03,120 --> 00:36:00,250 dominant feature it's recorded in the 657 00:36:05,850 --> 00:36:03,130 Greenland course it's also recorded at 658 00:36:09,140 --> 00:36:05,860 South Pole Station but we do not have 659 00:36:12,810 --> 00:36:09,150 evidence of the Little Ice Age in China 660 00:36:15,570 --> 00:36:12,820 if you were to take 11 meteorological 661 00:36:19,770 --> 00:36:15,580 stations chosen at random but to give a 662 00:36:23,910 --> 00:36:19,780 global coverage I suggest that you would 663 00:36:26,160 --> 00:36:23,920 not find coherences any stronger than 664 00:36:30,810 --> 00:36:26,170 these it is very difficult to 665 00:36:33,240 --> 00:36:30,820 reconstruct climate from point sites but 666 00:36:35,070 --> 00:36:33,250 that's what we have to do the one 667 00:36:38,250 --> 00:36:35,080 feature that comes through very clearly 668 00:36:46,500 --> 00:36:38,260 in this record is the warming of the 669 00:36:49,560 --> 00:36:46,510 last century and a half when we go 670 00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:49,570 places in drill new ice cores we find 671 00:36:56,360 --> 00:36:52,570 that they often challenged our existing 672 00:36:59,670 --> 00:36:56,370 paradigms the way we think about things 673 00:37:05,070 --> 00:36:59,680 want to return now to Peru but go to 674 00:37:07,260 --> 00:37:05,080 northern Peru to a site crossed Quran we 675 00:37:12,090 --> 00:37:07,270 drilled here in this call at a little 676 00:37:16,260 --> 00:37:12,100 over 6,000 meters the access was 677 00:37:19,500 --> 00:37:16,270 difficult this is the drill cap in the 678 00:37:25,320 --> 00:37:19,510 call and this was the second use of 679 00:37:28,320 --> 00:37:25,330 solar power for ice core drilling to 680 00:37:30,420 --> 00:37:28,330 date the core we again count annual 681 00:37:33,750 --> 00:37:30,430 layers I'm showing you just 682 00:37:36,900 --> 00:37:33,760 four sections from the core each section 683 00:37:41,210 --> 00:37:36,910 with the same three parameters used for 684 00:37:46,349 --> 00:37:41,220 dating Dust oxygen isotopic ratios and 685 00:37:49,589 --> 00:37:46,359 nitrate concentrations in green this 686 00:37:53,370 --> 00:37:49,599 diagram shows the layer thinning with 687 00:37:55,410 --> 00:37:53,380 depth and we we thin essentially from a 688 00:38:00,750 --> 00:37:55,420 layer thickness of about a metre and a 689 00:38:06,089 --> 00:38:00,760 half of water equivalent very quickly we 690 00:38:09,120 --> 00:38:06,099 thin to centimeters scale when we have 691 00:38:11,609 --> 00:38:09,130 this degree of thinning we can generally 692 00:38:14,069 --> 00:38:11,619 and if we're frozen to the bed we can 693 00:38:18,720 --> 00:38:14,079 generally count on having a very long 694 00:38:22,920 --> 00:38:18,730 record and in fact we extracted from Los 695 00:38:26,940 --> 00:38:22,930 Quran just in 1993 the first glacial 696 00:38:29,700 --> 00:38:26,950 stage ice from the tropics I'm showing 697 00:38:33,950 --> 00:38:29,710 you now just the lower portion of the 698 00:38:40,410 --> 00:38:33,960 Huascar encore and we see the Delta o-18 699 00:38:44,370 --> 00:38:40,420 very negative this shift from maximum or 700 00:38:48,990 --> 00:38:44,380 most depleted to most enriched is eight 701 00:38:52,790 --> 00:38:49,000 parts per mil also a substantial 702 00:38:57,110 --> 00:38:52,800 reduction in my trait concentration 703 00:39:03,800 --> 00:38:57,120 of two or three and in an increase of 704 00:39:08,120 --> 00:39:03,810 two hundred fold indust the increase in 705 00:39:11,870 --> 00:39:08,130 dust the decrease in nitrate is very 706 00:39:13,820 --> 00:39:11,880 consistent with the climate that has 707 00:39:17,630 --> 00:39:13,830 been reconstructed the late glacial 708 00:39:20,570 --> 00:39:17,640 stage climate shown on your right based 709 00:39:23,200 --> 00:39:20,580 upon a variety of glacial geologic 710 00:39:25,670 --> 00:39:23,210 evidence and palin illogic evidence 711 00:39:29,110 --> 00:39:25,680 essentially at the height of the last 712 00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:29,120 glacial maximum deserts were twenty-five 713 00:39:36,350 --> 00:39:33,330 twenty-five percent more extensive the 714 00:39:39,140 --> 00:39:36,360 area was much drier the tropical 715 00:39:42,290 --> 00:39:39,150 rainforest which we see here in dark 716 00:39:47,150 --> 00:39:42,300 green was much less extensive much more 717 00:39:50,530 --> 00:39:47,160 Savannah and the Amazon but the Amazon 718 00:39:54,770 --> 00:39:50,540 River ran in a canyon a deep in size 719 00:40:00,590 --> 00:39:54,780 Canyon that drained the moisture out of 720 00:40:03,170 --> 00:40:00,600 this basin very effectively so the 721 00:40:05,150 --> 00:40:03,180 decrease in nitrate we think is 722 00:40:08,420 --> 00:40:05,160 associated with the reduction in 723 00:40:12,140 --> 00:40:08,430 vegetation the increase in dust is 724 00:40:16,940 --> 00:40:12,150 associated with the increased frequency 725 00:40:21,770 --> 00:40:16,950 of eolian features now let's compare the 726 00:40:25,070 --> 00:40:21,780 hot the cross quran record to similar 727 00:40:27,380 --> 00:40:25,080 records from both polar regions on the 728 00:40:31,700 --> 00:40:27,390 extreme right we have the die three 729 00:40:36,200 --> 00:40:31,710 record this is dust late glacial stage 730 00:40:40,160 --> 00:40:36,210 hi dust depleted or more negative Delta 731 00:40:43,910 --> 00:40:40,170 o-18 this is don't see this is in 732 00:40:46,700 --> 00:40:43,920 Central East Antarctica again hi dust 733 00:40:49,910 --> 00:40:46,710 for the Glacial stage and much more 734 00:40:54,950 --> 00:40:49,920 negative Delta o-18 and then on your on 735 00:40:58,010 --> 00:40:54,960 your left hi Dustin huascaran and more 736 00:41:00,640 --> 00:40:58,020 negative Delta o-18 in fact the Delta 737 00:41:03,380 --> 00:41:00,650 shift from late glacial to holocene 738 00:41:06,080 --> 00:41:03,390 conditions is eight parts per million 739 00:41:10,910 --> 00:41:06,090 huascaran compared to 740 00:41:15,440 --> 00:41:10,920 six parts per million doses per mil @ 741 00:41:18,950 --> 00:41:15,450 die three just point out briefly also 742 00:41:22,430 --> 00:41:18,960 evidence for the Younger Dryas during 743 00:41:26,060 --> 00:41:22,440 the deglaciation sequence seen best here 744 00:41:29,810 --> 00:41:26,070 in Greenland there was as there the 745 00:41:32,720 --> 00:41:29,820 warming was interrupted by a return to 746 00:41:36,920 --> 00:41:32,730 near full glacial conditions for a 747 00:41:39,440 --> 00:41:36,930 matter of a thousand years or so and dr. 748 00:41:41,900 --> 00:41:39,450 McElroy will talk more about these type 749 00:41:45,200 --> 00:41:41,910 of rapid changes but I want to point out 750 00:41:48,110 --> 00:41:45,210 that the Younger Dryas is also recorded 751 00:41:50,600 --> 00:41:48,120 on this ice cap at nine degrees cell 752 00:41:53,780 --> 00:41:50,610 this is what I mean about challenging 753 00:41:56,300 --> 00:41:53,790 the existing paradigm the existing 754 00:41:58,610 --> 00:41:56,310 paradigm with regard to tropical climate 755 00:42:01,100 --> 00:41:58,620 is that the tropics don't change much 756 00:42:04,910 --> 00:42:01,110 and based on the climb a pre 757 00:42:07,160 --> 00:42:04,920 constructions the thinking was that the 758 00:42:11,390 --> 00:42:07,170 tropics during the last glacial stage 759 00:42:13,910 --> 00:42:11,400 were not substantially colder this ice 760 00:42:16,190 --> 00:42:13,920 core record along with records that are 761 00:42:18,160 --> 00:42:16,200 now emerging from corals and from some 762 00:42:20,630 --> 00:42:18,170 other pollen cores in the basin 763 00:42:22,280 --> 00:42:20,640 challenge that and suggest that 764 00:42:25,790 --> 00:42:22,290 temperatures during the last glacial 765 00:42:29,300 --> 00:42:25,800 maximum were as much as possibly five 766 00:42:31,130 --> 00:42:29,310 degrees colder we have to remember that 767 00:42:35,300 --> 00:42:31,140 the current climate models that are used 768 00:42:37,580 --> 00:42:35,310 to make future projections have been 769 00:42:41,180 --> 00:42:37,590 tested in terms of their validity 770 00:42:44,270 --> 00:42:41,190 against their ability to reproduce known 771 00:42:46,730 --> 00:42:44,280 conditions the problem is the known 772 00:42:50,300 --> 00:42:46,740 condition to which their feet were held 773 00:42:53,900 --> 00:42:50,310 to the fire were not really known that 774 00:42:56,960 --> 00:42:53,910 so these new course tell us that we have 775 00:43:00,620 --> 00:42:56,970 a lot more work to do with the climate 776 00:43:03,500 --> 00:43:00,630 modelling finally during the last two 777 00:43:06,500 --> 00:43:03,510 decades it's important to recognize that 778 00:43:09,290 --> 00:43:06,510 ice caps and glaciers outside of the 779 00:43:11,420 --> 00:43:09,300 polar region primarily have been 780 00:43:15,470 --> 00:43:11,430 diminishing or disappearing at an 781 00:43:16,880 --> 00:43:15,480 astonishing rate in the last few weeks 782 00:43:18,450 --> 00:43:16,890 if you've been listening watching 783 00:43:20,849 --> 00:43:18,460 watching on your inner 784 00:43:22,859 --> 00:43:20,859 it you'll notice there has been there 785 00:43:27,210 --> 00:43:22,869 been the reports of the increased 786 00:43:30,480 --> 00:43:27,220 frequency of icebergs from the wadell 787 00:43:32,910 --> 00:43:30,490 sea area but in reality there have been 788 00:43:37,440 --> 00:43:32,920 other observations such as the warty ice 789 00:43:40,380 --> 00:43:37,450 shelf which since about nineteen in the 790 00:43:42,960 --> 00:43:40,390 since the 1950s is now down to something 791 00:43:45,900 --> 00:43:42,970 on the order of thirty to twenty five 792 00:43:48,480 --> 00:43:45,910 percent of its size just three decades 793 00:43:51,390 --> 00:43:48,490 ago and for the first time in history 794 00:43:53,670 --> 00:43:51,400 this year ships could circumnavigate 795 00:43:56,160 --> 00:43:53,680 Ross Island because the land bridge 796 00:44:01,470 --> 00:43:56,170 connecting it to the mainland has 797 00:44:04,910 --> 00:44:01,480 disappeared the ice core record from the 798 00:44:08,010 --> 00:44:04,920 dire plateau shows us this is Delta o-18 799 00:44:10,230 --> 00:44:08,020 shows us essentially that since the 40s 800 00:44:13,200 --> 00:44:10,240 there has been a marked warming in this 801 00:44:15,270 --> 00:44:13,210 region if you might look back and say oh 802 00:44:18,030 --> 00:44:15,280 yeah but there was a warm time back then 803 00:44:21,300 --> 00:44:18,040 the difference is not the degree of the 804 00:44:26,160 --> 00:44:21,310 warmth the differences in is that warmth 805 00:44:32,520 --> 00:44:26,170 sustained and this is a 50-year warming 806 00:44:35,520 --> 00:44:32,530 period returning for the last time to 807 00:44:38,310 --> 00:44:35,530 kill kya we've had the opportunity to 808 00:44:41,700 --> 00:44:38,320 observe in this area since nineteen 809 00:44:43,859 --> 00:44:41,710 seventy-four and I have to use what used 810 00:44:47,520 --> 00:44:43,869 to be called the dirty word the M word 811 00:44:50,880 --> 00:44:47,530 that's monitoring we were always told 812 00:44:52,740 --> 00:44:50,890 fuel in the I scoring business that we 813 00:44:55,020 --> 00:44:52,750 don't monitor we just go out and get 814 00:44:57,990 --> 00:44:55,030 records what we have found is that 815 00:45:00,089 --> 00:44:58,000 monitoring is critical just like the ice 816 00:45:03,480 --> 00:45:00,099 course that provide this long-term 817 00:45:06,089 --> 00:45:03,490 history we need to be monitoring now we 818 00:45:08,010 --> 00:45:06,099 need to start these records whether 819 00:45:09,630 --> 00:45:08,020 they're people will say yeah but if we 820 00:45:11,670 --> 00:45:09,640 start a satellite record we're only 821 00:45:13,440 --> 00:45:11,680 going to have in 20 years we're just 822 00:45:15,359 --> 00:45:13,450 going to have 20 years but that's 20 823 00:45:18,150 --> 00:45:15,369 more years then you would have if you 824 00:45:21,690 --> 00:45:18,160 don't start the program and I'll just 825 00:45:26,400 --> 00:45:21,700 show you the value of monitoring on kal 826 00:45:28,380 --> 00:45:26,410 kya in 1976 we drilled the core here at 827 00:45:32,479 --> 00:45:28,390 the summit and you can see the beautiful 828 00:45:36,420 --> 00:45:32,489 preservation of oxygen isotopic ratios 829 00:45:38,489 --> 00:45:36,430 at the same site in 1991 we drilled a 830 00:45:40,680 --> 00:45:38,499 core and you can see that record is 831 00:45:43,289 --> 00:45:40,690 obliterated it's obliterated by the 832 00:45:45,779 --> 00:45:43,299 percolation of meltwater if we were 833 00:45:48,239 --> 00:45:45,789 looking at the Cal kya ice cap today and 834 00:45:51,329 --> 00:45:48,249 trying to determine whether it had the 835 00:45:56,789 --> 00:45:51,339 potential for a long-term climate record 836 00:45:59,279 --> 00:45:56,799 we would pass it up this is the quarry 837 00:46:02,880 --> 00:45:59,289 Kahless glacier it's the largest outlet 838 00:46:05,430 --> 00:46:02,890 glacier on kal kya and we have been able 839 00:46:08,339 --> 00:46:05,440 to get terrestrial photography that 840 00:46:15,809 --> 00:46:08,349 shows the retreat of that outlet glacier 841 00:46:21,960 --> 00:46:15,819 since 1963 6880 391 more importantly 842 00:46:24,390 --> 00:46:21,970 this graph is the rate of retreat from 843 00:46:26,670 --> 00:46:24,400 nineteen sixty three to nineteen seventy 844 00:46:30,229 --> 00:46:26,680 eight it retreated at a rate of four 845 00:46:35,249 --> 00:46:30,239 meters a year then seven meters a year 846 00:46:40,769 --> 00:46:35,259 and since 1978 I'm sorry since 1983 it's 847 00:46:43,979 --> 00:46:40,779 retreated 14 meters a year finally we 848 00:46:46,109 --> 00:46:43,989 just have basic observations this 849 00:46:49,559 --> 00:46:46,119 Boulder is about the size of this stage 850 00:46:51,749 --> 00:46:49,569 and this ice cliff which is vertical 851 00:46:55,289 --> 00:46:51,759 this is kal kya again I'm coming back 852 00:46:57,719 --> 00:46:55,299 now to that vertical margin is about 20 853 00:47:02,579 --> 00:46:57,729 meters high and this picture was taken 854 00:47:08,719 --> 00:47:02,589 in 1977 this is one year later in 855 00:47:18,269 --> 00:47:08,729 nineteen seventy eight nineteen seventy 856 00:47:23,130 --> 00:47:18,279 1983 1989 this is the boulder now this 857 00:47:26,249 --> 00:47:23,140 is the margin and in 1993 this is the 858 00:47:29,190 --> 00:47:26,259 boulder this is the margin and it's 20 859 00:47:31,709 --> 00:47:29,200 centimeters high this is happening 860 00:47:34,589 --> 00:47:31,719 around the world in the tropics and 861 00:47:39,719 --> 00:47:34,599 subtropics the Lewis glacier has lost 862 00:47:44,849 --> 00:47:39,729 forty percent of its of its mass in the 863 00:47:46,260 --> 00:47:44,859 last 25 years in the ruined zorry the 864 00:47:49,680 --> 00:47:46,270 speak glacier 865 00:47:51,840 --> 00:47:49,690 they're all disappearing the sad part is 866 00:47:53,520 --> 00:47:51,850 not only is there an omen here that 867 00:47:55,500 --> 00:47:53,530 something is different that these ice 868 00:47:58,620 --> 00:47:55,510 masses that have lasted for centuries 869 00:48:01,230 --> 00:47:58,630 are going away that should concern us 870 00:48:05,570 --> 00:48:01,240 but with them they're taking these very 871 00:48:08,540 --> 00:48:05,580 valuable archives so I hope that I have